2nd April 2020

There are now more than a million people worldwide diagnosed positive, and 50,000 have died. The uk scores are 33,000 and 3000 though we all know this is a massive understimate.

John is out of hospital but not right. He’s not eating, has developed strange blisters and feels sick all the time. I worry he’s allergic to some of the antibiotics. Ann has called 111 and is seeking advice.

We’re ok, though i have been off work today with a blinding headache and cough. My chest is a bit worse too, I’m wheezing more.

Mary continues to be unwell, still has horrible coughing fits and can’t breathe. It simply isn’t lifting.

The govt has come in for increasing criticism about the lack of proper testing. Other countries are testing far more extensively, and the govts excuses are wearing thin. They claimed a lack of chemicals – and the chemicals industry said this wasn’t true. They said there weren’t enough test kits – and test kit makers said the govt hadn’t even contacted them. Same with equipment – they asked Dyson to make ventilators with no experience and ignored a qualified makers who were offering ready-made equipment which has now been sold overseas. Seems the govt has been favouring its Brexit Buddies? As for the NHS, it keeps going though now 25% of docs are self-isolating.

Hancock meanwhile is claiming they’ll be doing 100,000 tests by the end of April. Thats going to be too late. Unless there’s a dramatic change in infection and death rates, in two weeks there will be 100,000 cases and 20,000 dead, and by monthend there will be 1.5 million Brits in a serious or critical condition.

The only hope is that we are indeed about to see the curve flatten due to social isolation. Over in italy their curve has flattened off and the number of new cases is now only about 5% (of 115,000 total). Our rate is still double that.

As for death stats, at the current doubling-rate of every three days, there will be over a million dead by the end of April. I find that number hard to believe, but the maths isn’t amenable to my disbelief. Its a simple sum really. Thirty days, doubling every three days = 6,500 by the 5th, 13,000 by the 8th, 26,000 by the 11th and so on. This parallels what has happened in Italy where they’re about a week or so ahead of us and have 115,000 cases and 13,000 dead.

The scary thing is that even if the doubling rate improves to every six days, there will still be 100,00 dead by the end of May. We can only hope that if the rate of infection drops off there will be fewer people “available” to die. I’m hoping my maths is wrong.

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