31st October 2020

Hey ho, back into Lockdown till 3rd December.

Today, the Govt bowed to scientific advice and announced a new nationwide lockdown will begin on Thursday after Bonfire Night. Otherwise, scientists warn us, we’re looking at 3000-5000 deaths per day by early December. My own analysis suggests this isn’t inaccurate.

While reported cases is now around 24,000 per day, independent research suggests the true number is nearer 100,000 and doubling every 9 days. If the current 1% death rate holds true then allowing for the 25-28 day lag between diagnosis and “outcome”, we would be expecting 1,000 deaths a day by end November, which again is more or less in line with my analysis.

Of course, in reality lockdown probably comes too late to prevent that, because the people who die in the next four weeks will mostly already have caught the disease. If we’d gone into lockdown 4 weeks ago then it might have saved 10,000 lives.

It will be sobering to see if, in 4 weeks, we have still lost 10,000 more lives to this disease.

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