Its been a while since i wrote in this blog! What has happened?
Between March and the end of May, cases continued to fall. Things looked fairly good in fact, with daily cases falling to around 1500, and deaths to single figures. The govt set a timetable for reopening which included a relaxation on 17th May and a complete cessation of restrictions on 21st June. And stupidly claimed it was a “one way journey”.
Unfortunately that turned out to be premature. A new variant, called Delta, arose in India and ravaged the country there, with hundreds of thousands of cases per day. Despite having a “traffic light” system in place to identify high risk countries the UK govt failed to take action, allowing thousands of people from India to enter the UK. By coincidence, Johnson was trying to strike a trade deal with India. Coincidence, hmm.
In addition, against the advice of almost all scientists, the govt relaxed social distancing rules in schools. As a consequence, cases in schools have increased. Though we only found this out recently because the govt instructed Public Health England to SUPPRESS the data, and even when forced to release it, they obfuscated it to make it hard to interpret.
Similarly, Portugal recently went back onto the danger list. But curiously, the decision was delayed till the Monday after a european football final was played in Portugal, between two English teams, and which was coincidentally attended by Michael Gove. Many questions here: why was the match played in Portugal? Why was anyone flying there? Why did the decision get left till Monday? Did Gove influence that decision? After all he’d already paid $$$$ for tickets and flights and hotels. And to cap it all, he’s not had to quarantine.
Anyway the outcome is that as of 14th June, the date has been pushed back. We’re now back to 7000-8000 new cases per day, rapidly rising, and 90% are the Delta variant. Had the govt acted 6 weeks ago we could have avoided this but they put trade over lives.
So as of today, the “irreversible” roadmap has been delayed to 17th July. But they still haven’t learned any lessons. They’re still talking about a one way journey, that there will be no new lockdowns, etc etc. There is no sensible way that this can be claimed, and so they’re simply setting themselves up to fail.
So what do the experts think? Most actual experts think we should have taken action sooner, sealed borders, kept masks on in schools etc. Even now, they think we can work it out if only we keep the measures in place and vaccinate people quicker. But at the current trajectory, there will be 15000 cases per day by 21st June, 30000 by July and 60000 by mid July. Daily cases. If even 2.5% of that caseload dies (the average so far), we’re talking about 10,000 deaths a week.
Lets hope that vaccines help with this. So far it seems hospitalisation rates are halved compared to previously, which we believe is due to vaccination. Additionally the bulk of hospital cases are younger people who should recover quicker and be less ill. Lets hope so. Right now we’re on the same trajectory as last September.
And meanwhile, in the courts, the govt has been found guilty of giving contracts to chums without proper due diligence or transparency. Gove has been found guilty of the same. And the list goes on. These crooks have taken our money, slipped it to their pals, and then left us to die. And they’re doing it again.